I was on a long flight last week. We hit a couple of rough patches of turbulence. The pilot said that we faced some stiff headwinds as we were going east to west against a strong jet stream. Reminded me a lot of the economic scenario right now and the accompanying market actions we have experienced since early September.
While this is typical seasonal action, it has also been mired with turbulent economic inputs, higher interest rates and enhanced geopolitical risks.
As you will soon review in the Big View offered below, RISK OFF was the theme of this past week. However, underlying technical conditions may have held up enough to launch us into the positive seasonal effect that typically occur from late October until year-end. But we certainly are not there yet. The technical indicators are improving, ever so slightly.
So where is the turbulence coming from?
We could probably confine it to just a few major headwinds, which I describe briefly below: