The Fed has doubled down on its view that a recession is no longer likely. This has caught the attention of the bond market as it now struggles with the GROWTH story. However, they do acknowledge that we are in a commercial real estate crisis. If the FED can avoid a recession after the dramatic and unprecedented historical tightening they have instituted during 2022 and 2023, that would be IMPRESSIVE!
It is interesting to look at the longer-term picture (24 years) to see that the dominant bond market trend has been broken. See chart below:
